A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
